There is the potential for an USD 18 trillion (AED 66 trillion) boost to trade according to DMCC’s latest Future of Trade 2020 report released today. The application of technology to trade, the growth of cross-border services, innovation in trade policy, and trade-related infrastructure development can act as the catalysts to boost trade.
DMCC’s flagship thought leadership report – now in its third edition – examines the impact of geopolitics, technology, COVID-19 and global economic trends on the future of trade, with a focus on trade growth, supply chains, trade finance, infrastructure and sustainability. In addition to offering analysis, the report provides clear and tangible trade policy recommendations to government and business.
According to the research, geopolitical tensions, namely the US-China trade war, and economic recovery from the global COVID-19 pandemic will define the trade landscape of the 2020s. While the pandemic has caused the fastest and deepest economic shock in history, it has already significantly shaped the future of trade by accelerating trends such as digitalisation, the recalibration of global supply chains, and a reconsideration of the role of national security in trade policy.
“The Future of Trade report explores the various scenarios for the road ahead in what is an unprecedented time for global trade. Despite the evident economic uncertainty of the time, our research shows that one thing is certain – the future of trade, and indeed the future of the economic recovery, relies heavily on global cooperation. Finding common ground and collectively making the case for international trade will be key determining factors of success. With this research, DMCC set out to not only identify barriers to global trade but provide solutions to them,” said Ahmed Bin Sulayem, Executive Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, DMCC.
The report was launched during a webinar where attendees were briefed on the findings and key recommendations for government and business to enable trade in the 2020s and beyond. A series of conversations with international trade experts also looked at ways to practically enact the report’s key recommendations.
“In 2020, the global trade order is at a tipping point that will define the decade ahead. However, the Future of Trade report illustrates that if businesses and governments are willing to collaborate to overcome some of the barriers at hand, the outcome will be a positive one. Within our research we have identified four key components that, if taken together, could drive trade by USD 18 trillion up to 2030. These include the implementation of technology that supports trade, the growth of cross border services trade, innovation in trade policy, and the investment in trade related infrastructure,” said Feryal Ahmadi, Chief Operating Officer, DMCC.
“Innovation, not just in supply chains, but in the way trade policies are shaped and partnerships are formed, also have a crucial role to play here. Whether governments and businesses will feel the urgency to be more ambitious on ESG and sustainability, in light of competing national economic priorities, will be another factor that will influence the trade landscape. Ultimately, the key to boosting global trade comes down to collaboration and the willingness to forge new ways of working together. Offering insight on the road ahead, not just analysis on the current situation was important to DMCC, and that is why recommendations for government and business are made throughout the report,” she added.
revious editions of the Future of Trade report (2016 and 2018) have been downloaded over 110,000 times to date with the latest version structured in five chapters.